Probability, Bias, and the Lottery That Was Actually Worth Playing | Jessie Yeung

In this episode, we’re joined by Jessie Yeung. Jessie teaches an undergraduate course called “Probabilities Everywhere,” which explores how probability shows up in everyday life—from elections and gambling to wartime decision-making and polling. Her work focuses on interdisciplinary research, statistics education, and social statistics, with a passion for making statistical thinking accessible and relevant.

We talk about what polls actually measure, how to think clearly about uncertainty, and why understanding probability can transform how you see the world—from politics to poker.

📖 Video Chapters

0:00 – Intro
0:28 – What Election Polls Actually Measure
4:01 – Bias in Polling & Adjusting for It
7:02 – Understanding Margin of Error & Confidence Intervals
12:36 – How Sample Size Affects Accuracy
14:46 – The “Magic Number” of 1,000 in Polls
17:00 – Sample Size Calculations Explained
20:03 – Why the House Always Wins: Casinos & the Law of Large Numbers
23:00 – Lottery Economics: Expected Loss and Rare Profitable Cases
25:30 – The Cash Windfall Lottery Hack by MIT Students
30:18 – Sampling’s Hidden Superpower
34:52 – Abraham Wald and the Bias in Wartime Data
40:04 – Making Probability Relatable in Everyday Life
41:39 – Why You Shouldn’t Trust Polls as Predictions
42:48 – Rethinking Uncertainty: What Students Take Away
43:34 – Lotteries, Casinos & the Myth of Getting Rich
44:20 – Final Thoughts & Takeaways